02/07/2025 17:40
Red Bull stared down the barrel of a future without Max Verstappen
after the Dutchman retired on the opening lap of the Austrian Grand
Prix. The Milton Keynes squad's home race would only get more
miserable from there, with Yuki Tsunoda collecting a 10-second time
penalty en route to P16, the last of the remaining runners and two
laps down on winner Lando Norris. That is just a small, worrisome
sneak preview into what lies in wait if Max Verstappen does leave
for Mercedes - the talk of the paddock over the weekend at the Red
Bull Ring. Speculation had been bubbling beneath the surface, as it
has been over the past year or so, but George Russell confirming
Toto Wolff and Mercedes were currently engaged in talks with the
four-time F1 drivers' champion on media day in Spielberg brought
the subject back to the fore. The Austrian spoke openly last season
about his desire to see Verstappen race for Mercedes in the future,
but with the 27-year-old ultimately not interested in leaving Red
Bull at the time, he turned to Kimi Antonelli. Wolff was not
willing to let the young Italian slip through his fingers, as
Verstappen did a decade ago, and now that he has arrived in F1 and
is clearly up to the task, he looks set to remain in his seat for
the foreseeable - even if the combination of Verstappen and Russell
is viable and would immediately be stronger. At the start of the
current campaign, the 53-year-old made it clear he was happy with
the line-up of Russell and Antonelli, saying he had not had a
"conversation" with Verstappen about a move. That has now changed,
despite Wolff continuing to insist his current drivers are
"perfect". It leaves his British driver in a precarious situation.
The four-time grand prix winner is performing superbly this year
and appears unfazed by the situation as he is doing all he can, but
he is out of contract at the end of the season, and the
Verstappen-Mercedes conversations appear to have stalled
negotiations over a potential extension. Previously in The Scoop
The case for '27 As for Verstappen and Red Bull, although signed
until the end of 2028, exit clauses understood to be in the
Dutchman's contract could pave the way for him to force a move to
Brackley for the 2026 season, if he is outside the top three in the
drivers' championship come the summer break. The cruel irony for
Russell is that, at just nine points adrift, he would be the driver
to push Verstappen out of the top three in the drivers' standings,
if that does come to pass. There is the sense, however, that any
such proviso only makes it easier for Wolff to prise Verstappen
away, not that it makes it possible . Christian Horner has long
maintained he would not stand in the way of a driver under contract
who wanted to leave - even Verstappen. And even if those talks
intensify, as is starting to be heavily speculated is now the case,
and an agreement is reached, there is currently nothing to suggest
it would be for 2026. Would the Dutchman want to gamble on an
unknown? Changing teams heading into a regulations reset is
undeniably risky. What if Red Bull aces the new rules and Mercedes
suffers a similar fate to the past few years? Therefore, there is
every chance that current conversations are centred on an option
for 2027. This would allow Mercedes to then go back and offer
Russell a one-year deal with a team option for the following
campaign after initially signing Verstappen, just in case the Red
Bull driver ultimately decides to stay put and honour his existing
contract. Nonetheless, although that scenario lessens the immediate
jeopardy facing the six-time constructors' champions, it does not
alleviate the uncertainty of a scary new reality. Red Bull would no
longer be beholden to the extreme preferences of Verstappen, and it
could move forward in a more team-centric manner, with two drivers
better equipped to fight on an even playing field, thus solving its
persistent second-seat problem. No heir to Verstappen's throne The
situation at Red Bull is dire. Verstappen continues to outperform
the RB21, like he did with the RB20. But no other driver can seem
to handle the uniquely-challenging nature of the team's cars. Since
Lawson was jettisoned from the second seat after just two rounds,
Tsunoda has only been able to contribute a mere seven points.
Without his team-mate, Red Bull would be pinned to the foot of the
constructors' standings. In the last three rounds, Stake has
outscored both the Japanese driver and Verstappen by 20 points to
19, underlining how little help the Dutchman is currently getting.
Even more concerning for Christian Horner and co. is that it has no
viable in-house replacement for the 65-time grand prix winner. When
Sebastian Vettel departed for Ferrari in 2015, the feeling was that
Daniel Ricciardo, as heir apparent, would fill the void, having
beaten the German the year before, his first with the team. Red
Bull does not have the luxury of the same next driver up scenario
to fall back on this time around. Isack Hadjar has undoubtedly
impressed so far this campaign, but he is nowhere near ready to
ascend to the main team and survive, let alone thrive. And Liam
Lawson and Tsunoda have provided zero indication they will ever be
able to even come close to Verstappen's level in one of the Milton
Keynes-based squad's cars. Arvid Lindblad continues to grow a
strong reputation. The highly-touted F2 driver and Red Bull junior
will make his FP1 debut for the team at Silverstone in place of
Tsunoda, having been granted a super licence exemption by the FIA -
he has already accrued enough points, but is still just 17 years of
age. Uncertainty breeds opportunity However, despite the -
naturally - considerable loss of Verstappen's departure,
opportunity - and a silver lining - would be presented to Red Bull.
Firstly, Russell would most likely become available as a direct
consequence. There is not a single driver on the current F1 grid
who can hold a candle to Verstappen at the moment, but the British
driver has proven so far this season that if given the right
machinery, he could compete for titles. And even if he does not
remedy the lead driver situation himself, he will likely be courted
by a rival team, which would move the market and could free up
another top-tier talent to poach. Secondly, and far more
critically, it would allow the team space to produce a more benign
and compliant car, similar to Racing Bulls'. Red Bull would no
longer be beholden to the extreme preferences of Verstappen, and it
could move forward in a more team-centric manner, with two drivers
better equipped to fight on an even playing field, thus solving its
persistent second-seat problem. Russell and a more agreeable
package will not totally soften the blow of Verstappen leaving for
a competitor, but it presents options and the ability to rebuild in
a direction more orientated around and conducive for constructors'
championship success.
